Relative Frequency and Probability
After observing Michael Jordan’s long-range performance and his probability of making a free-throw shot, we would expect him to perform at approximately a 0.835 percentage. Unfortunately, in 2001–2002, Michael Jordan’s performance fell to a 0.790 percentage. Observing long-run relative frequencies allows us to predict the approximate relative frequency.
If we include Michael Jordan’s 2001–2002 performance with the overall data, his career average drops to 0.832. Michael Jordan played one more year. Observing his long-run performance on free throws, we can predict his free-throw percentage to be about 0.832 for his last year.