From Mars to Mardi Gras: A Lesson in Generalizations
Now, Carl prepares the filling for the cake, which includes nuts, raisins and sugar. Then, he bakes the Mardi Gras King Cake.
When Carl’s sister is handed her piece of King Cake, she is very disappointed to discover her slice does not contain any nuts. Neither did their mom’s or their dad’s. Carl’s sister exclaims, “You forgot to put nuts in the filling!”
Again, Carl’s sister is making an incorrect generalization. Why?
She is basing her generalization on only three samples. The three slices of cake all came from one side of the cake. The slices were not randomly selected around the cake.
Randomly selected: A selection that is chosen randomly (purely by chance, with no predictability).